Near the Peak

Many states, provinces, and districts are close or at the peak of "New Cases per Day". Most pulp and papermills have adjusted to this new norm. Markets are now being effected, particularly printing papers.

We have learned some characteristics of the Covid19 virus. Initial ranking put Covid19 transmissability low (Its R0), like influenza. This CDC study estimates higher, near 5, quite transmissible. This has implications for "restarting our businesses and our economy.

There have been a number of "Maps" for restarting the American Economy. The American Enterprise Institute, Harvard, and Paul Romer Nobel Economist. All conclude that we need more testing and will need to monitor our health care facility loads as "loosening starts" There are no predictions of an easy restart.

You should conclude that your current Covid19 plan is more "Normal" than you ever thought. Bill Gates says 2021 or later after we have either a vaccine or better treatments before "Normal " returns.

What do you need to be planning?

1. In Previous blogs I emphasised your need for strict routines to prevent transmission: cleanliness, distancing, staff remote work, shift changes.

2. I have recommended you have a "Worker tests positive" plan. Make sure its understood 24x7 by those in control of your facilities at all times. Failure to have a robust step 1 and 2 leads to shutdown.

3. Have you started to plan for a long "social distancing" period? Are you doing whatever you can to reduce the risk to vulnerable employees. A large big box home improvement retailer has sent home its "at risk >65 employees. Initially 80hrs, now 240hrs is expected. How can you reduce the risk to those employees and staff who are most vulnerable? Many are your most experienced workers.

4. It's time to start planning your "Post Covid19" business. It's unlikely to be the same as 2019. Your market may be permanently altered for good, or bad. There are many people now realizing the implications.

5. The way you run your current facilities may change permanently.

  • Your staff will have highlighted the weaknesses in IT infrastructure to support their remote working. Basics: laptops, VPN, More advanced: Historian and DCS graphics, and all drawings and P&ID's electronically available to remote staff.

  • Have you started to put in place realistic measures of effectiveness of your remote workers? Have you ensured they don't feel adrift? leaderless? Unappreciated?

  • One pulp mill is running a "Microsoft meeting" 24 x 7 in the main control room. The support staff for this operation can now be "In the control room" virtually.

Newberg Turbo is available to help in any phase of your Covid19 business. We are extremely flexible, and able to travel after factoring mandatory Quarantine requirements.

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