• Craig Walker

Covid-19: How did we get here?

One of the best ways to combat fear and uncertainty is data. As promised, today we review articles to bring you up to date on the pandemic and what to do about it. If you don't want to miss future updates, be sure to sign up for the blog. (And be sure to read to the end for your action plan.)


The Covid-19 Pandemic - Three articles covering the basics of this virus and how it may continue to affect the global economy as a whole


1. How does Covid-19 spread in a population? How fast does it spread and increase? How many cases are in any geographical location? Why is Social Distancing so Important? Why is the fatality rate somewhat dependent on the number of cases vs the number of ventilators and ICU beds. Read more: Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now


2. What level of mitigation is enough? Imperial College London UK did a epidemiological model of the UK and USA. "We use the latest estimates of severity to show that policy strategies which aim to mitigate the epidemic might halve deaths and reduce peak healthcare demand by two-thirds, but that this will not be enough to prevent health systems being overwhelmed. More intensive, and socially disruptive interventions will therefore be required to suppress transmission to low levels." They projected very serious outcomes if only mitigation is practiced. Potential UK deaths could reach 510,000. Potential USA Deaths could top 2 million. Both Governments changed course to “Separation, Lockdown, Social Distancing.” Read more here: Imperial College COVID-19 Response


3. Based on these projections, and the information from areas with actual experience, the USA is headed for a lockdown. The primary purpose is to slow transmission so that health care facilities don't get overwhelmed with patients. If transmission is slowed enough, hospitals will be able be care for and release Covid-19 patients fast enough that they won’t have to turn patients away - patients who, without medical attention, risk death. Italy, unfortunately, is at that stage. Read the full article here: Are you headed for "Lockdown"?


What about the Pulp and Paper Industry? - How could Covid-19 disrupt a typical pulp and papermill in a small town in Newfoundland, or Ontario Canada , or Washington State, or New Zealand?


  • A mere dozen cases of Covid-19 in auto-making plants, the USA, Canada, and Germany auto-making is shut down for “A few weeks”. March 18.

  • A well known Big Three packaging mill with a reaction plan still suffered bad press.

  • Are postal and delivered packages safe? AF&PA

  • Its an Opportunity for Kruger Canada

  • Bucking the trend? Tesla

  • Bucking the trend; Italian Papermills

  • Bucking the trend: Crossett

  • Your union may have an opinion; Guidance for Unions (UK)

  • Your Government trade policies destabilized by the pandemic could impact your business Economist

  • You may need your associations lobbying at government: French P&P Association

  • Pulp and Paper in USA Essential” AF&PA


Examples of Global Pulp and Paper Covid-19 Impact


Action Plans - Now, for the good news. You CAN do something about this pandemic for your business.


1. What should manufactures be doing right now? First, assess your customers: Is there demand for your product? Second, if your production is reduced, do you have an allocation plan?


2. Get your emergency supply chain plan in place. This addresses your customers and your supply chain if you are able to keep operating. Supply Chain Plan

3. If you hope to stay operational between now and September: Create an operating plan. We can help. We'll assemble the official and best practice material and work with your team to quickly put in place robust plans in all the critical areas. We're just a call or email away.

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